One map, twelve layers. Colour is the selected signal, size is supply depth, a ring marks an emerging growth zone. Measured data and Lumina model scores, always labelled.
Schematic map · positions approximate · model estimate
Cheap relative to the island, with rental fundamentals already running ahead of price — and enough data to say so. Model estimate, not a guarantee.
Lumina measures four things per district from our own daily scraping: median ฿/m², the p25–p75 price band, peak-season ADR, and listing & rental sample counts with a confidence label. Everything else on this map is a model estimate computed from those measured inputs — the formulas live in one place and are shown below.
Rental strength = peak ADR relative to price per m² (75%) + absolute ADR level (25%). Demand = ADR level (60%) + rental-listing activity (40%); occupancy is not yet measured, so it is not used. Risk = data thinness (45%) + price dispersion (35%) + illiquidity (20%). Growth = relative affordability (45%) + rental strength (35%) + supply headroom (20%) — a convergence thesis, not a market forecast. Timing answers "how early": rental fundamentals (50%) running ahead of price level (30%) plus demand (20%).
Investment Score blends growth 22%, rental 18%, timing 12%, demand 18%, safety 18% and liquidity 12%. Future Growth compounds a conservative annual appreciation midpoint (2–9%, from the growth score) over your chosen horizon, widened by a confidence band. These are estimates and scenarios — never guaranteed returns.
Not yet in the model: satellite construction signals, road/traffic growth, tourism and population feeds. They are on the roadmap and are labelled that way — we never turn a feed we do not have into a number.
Overall model read on district attractiveness
Model estimate of catch-up price potential
How early we are: fundamentals running ahead of price
Rental economics relative to price level
Demand proxy: nightly rate and rental activity
Model risk: data, price spread, liquidity (higher = riskier)
Market depth and data completeness
Blend of appreciation potential and rental income
Median price per m² — measured data
Peak-season nightly rate — measured data
Supply depth — number of listings
Model cumulative appreciation over the horizon
Positions on the map are a schematic abstraction, not survey coordinates. Figures refresh from the live API on load; scores recompute at build time from the same data shown on each district page.